A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
